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Summary. Cluster randomized clinical trials are increasingly popular to evaluate disease control interventions for communities. In these trials health interventions are allocated randomly to complete clusters or groups rather than to individual subjects. Sample size calculation for cluster randomized clinical trials has been largely based on classical theory, taking account of between‐cluster variation,...
Summary. Mathematical modelling of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) dynamics has played an important role in acquired immune deficiency syndrome research. Deterministic dynamic models have been developed to study the viral dynamic process for understanding the pathogenesis of HIV type 1 infection and antiviral treatment strategies. We propose a new multistage estimation procedure which uses data,...
Summary. In 1996, the discovery of variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease in the UK raised serious concerns about a large‐scale epidemic. These concerns have been heightened by the recent discovery of people in Britain who were infected through blood transfusion. The outbreak of variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease in France emerged more recently with 23 cases observed to date. We use a hidden Markov model...
Summary. Observations, model evaluations and expert judgements are combined to make predictions of snow velocity in large chute experiments. Different experimental variables, namely the environmental conditions snow density and snow surface temperature, affect all aspects of this inference. We show how the effect of these two variables can be incorporated in our judgements regarding the uncertain...
Summary. We focus on selecting optimal bandwidths for non‐parametric estimation of the two‐point correlation function of a point pattern. We obtain these optimal bandwidths by using a bootstrap approach to select a bandwidth that minimizes the integrated squared error. The variance term is estimated by using a non‐parametric spatial bootstrap, whereas the bias term is estimated with a plug‐in approach...
Summary. The path that the price takes during an on‐line auction plays an important role in understanding and forecasting on‐line auctions. Price dynamics, such as the price velocity or its acceleration, capture the speed at which auction information changes. The ability to estimate price dynamics accurately is especially important in realtime price forecasting, where bidders and sellers must make...
Summary. The work is motivated by a quantitative magnetic resonance imaging study of the differential tumour–healthy tissue change in contrast uptake induced by radiation. The goal is to determine the time in which there is maximal contrast uptake (a surrogate for permeability) in the tumour relative to healthy tissue. A notable feature of the data is its spatial heterogeneity. Zhang and co‐workers...
Summary. Considering the problem of predicting the whole annual load curve of some Electricité de France customers from easily available explanatory variables, we derive simultaneous confidence bands for this prediction. The methodology that is developed, which can be applied to numerous problems, uses results on the maximum of Gaussian sequences. The paper ends with the application to Electricité...
Summary. Quantile regression estimates the relationship between covariates and the τth quantile of the response distribution, rather than the mean. We present a Bayesian quantile regression model for count data and apply it in the field of environmental epidemiology, which is an area in which quantile regression is yet to be used. Our methods are applied to a new study of the relationship between...
Summary. The evaluation of results from mixtures of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) from two or more people in crime case investigations may be improved by taking not only the qualitative but also the quantitative part of the results into consideration. We present a statistical likelihood approach to assess the probability of observed peak heights and peak areas information for a pair of profiles matching...
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